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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."